Micha Tomkiewicz
Climate Change: The Fork at the End of Now Copyright © Momentum Press, LLC, 2011
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a re- trieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or any other except for brief quotations, not to exceed 400 words, without the prior permission of the publisher.
First published in 2011 by Momentum Press, LLC
222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017 www.momentumpress.net
ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-272-3 (hard back, case bound) ISBN-10: 1-60650-272-7 (hard back, case bound) ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-274-7 (e-book)
ISBN-10: 1-60650-274-3 (e-book)
Cover Design by Jonathan Pennell
Interior Design by Scribe, Inc. (www.scribenet.com) First edition: May 2011
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Printed in Taiwan ROC
If thou doest well, shalt thou not be accepted? And if thou does not well, sin lieth at the door. And unto thee shall be his desire, and thou shalt rule over him.
—Genesis 4:7
Any system in chemical equilibrium, as a result in the variation in one of the factors determining the equilibrium, undergoes a change such that, if this change had occurred by itself, it would have introduced a variation of the factor considered in the opposite direction.
—Henry Le Chatelier
To the three lovely anchors of my definition of “now”: Justin, Samantha, and Jack
1 | Introduction | 1 |
2 | The Issues | 15 |
3 | History | 37 |
4 | The Carbon Cycle | 53 |
5 | Energy, Temperature, Entropy, and Light | 67 |
6 | The Greenhouse Effect | 79 |
7 | Sun, Water, and Weather | 97 |
8 | Modeling | 109 |
9 | Human Involvement, the Separation of Variables, and the IPAT Identity | 125 |
10 | Fossil Fuels | 139 |
11 | Alternative Energy Sources | 149 |
12 | The Economic Balance | 177 |
13 | Politics: Global Issues, Local Decisions | 191 |
14 | What Can I Do, and What Can I Learn from Doing It? | 207 |
15 | Early Signs | 221 |
16 | The Future, the Past, and the Just World Hypothesis | 231 |
Notes | 241 |
Appendix 1: Units Conversions and Equivalencies 247
Appendix 2: The Periodic Table of Elements 248
Appendix 3: International Treaties 249
Further Reading 285
Index 287
Figure 1.1. | Schematic description of the scientific method | 5 |
Figure 1.2. | Simplified description of the scientific method | 6 |
Figure 2.1. | Carbon dioxide concentrations as observed at Mauna Loa | 19 |
Figure 2.2. | Carbon dioxide concentrations as observed at the South Pole | 19 |
Figure 2.3. | Deviations of mean annual global temperature from a 1951–1980 average of 14°C | 20 |
Figure 2.4. | GDP as a function of energy use for various countries | 22 |
Figure 2.5. | A “typical” view of the Amazon rain forest | 26 |
Figure 2.6. | Circle in a square | 30 |
Figure 2.7. | Enlargement of 1 year in Figure 2.1 | 31 |
Figure 2.8. | Simplified depiction of the oscillation in Figure 2.7 | 32 |
Figure 2.9. | Variation of temperature with height in the troposphere and the low stratosphere | 33 |
Figure 2.10. | A schematic representation of 1 km layers of the troposphere surrounding Earth | 35 |
Figure 3.1. | Comparison between the sea surface temperature anomaly and delO-18 of coral skeletons near the Galápagos Islands | 46 |
Figure 3.2. | Temperature profile at the Vostok ice core | 48 |
Figure 3.3. | History of the carbon dioxide concentration at the Vostok ice core | 48 |
Figure 3.4. | History of the concentration of methane at the Vostok ice core | 49 |
Figure 3.5. | Climate history since the end of the last ice age based on expansion of the data from Figure 3.2 | 51 |
Figure 4.1. | Atmospheric carbon budget. Fluxes (with arrows) are in Gt-C/year. Quantities (no arrows) in Gt-C. | 54 |
Figure 4.2. | Land carbon budget. Fluxes are in Gt-C/year. Land quantity is in Gt-C. | 55 |
Figure 4.3. | Carbon budgets in deep and shallow oceans. Fluxes are in Gt-C/year. Ocean quantities are in Gt-C. | 58 |
ix
x Illustrations
Figure 5.1. | Rainbow over New York City | 74 |
Figure 5.2. | Concentric water wave introduced by dropping a small pebble into a pond | 75 |
Figure 5.3. | Characteristics of a simple wave and a schematic drawing of an | |
electromagnetic wave | 76 | |
Figure 6.1. | Greenhouse in the Brooklyn Botanical Garden | 79 |
Figure 6.2. | The spectral distribution of blackbody radiation at 5800 K | 81 |
Figure 6.3. | Spectral distribution of blackbody radiation at a temperature of 290 K | 81 |
Figure 6.4. | Schematic diagram of Earth’s orbit around the sun | 84 |
Figure 6.5. | Global energy balance (in W/m2). Solar radiation is on the left and | |
thermal radiation is on the right. | 88 | |
Figure 7.1. | Schematic representation of Earth’s orbit around the sun. Seasons are | |
marked for the Northern Hemisphere. | 98 | |
Figure 7.2. | The water cycle | 103 |
Figure 7.3. | Global monthly average precipitation, 1987–1999 (mm/day) | 104 |
Figure 7.4. | Clouds over Belize | 106 |
Figure 8.1. | Elements of anthropogenic contributions to climate modeling | 110 |
Figure 8.2. | Projected global temperature increase as a function of the increase in | |
atmospheric concentrations of GHGs expressed in CO2 equivalents. The roman numerals indicate various stabilization scenarios. | 115 | |
Figure 8.3. | Predictions of the sea-level change under climate change scenarios | 118 |
Figure 8.4. | Earth and the moon | 123 |
Figure 9.1. | UN median estimate of the world population | 127 |
Figure 9.2. | Projected continental distribution of estimated population growth | 127 |
Figure 9.3. | Population growth as a function of GDP per capita for the following | |
countries (in increasing GDP per capita for 2003): India, China, the | ||
Philippines, Egypt, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, France, the United States, | ||
and Germany | 128 | |
Figure 9.4. | Recent history of the GDP per capita of India and the United States in | |
constant 1995 US$ | 131 | |
Figure 9.5. | Recent history of energy intensity of India and the United States | 133 |
Figure 9.6. | Recent history of CO2 emission per capita of India and the United States | 134 |
Figure 9.7. | Recent history of the product of GDP per capita and energy intensity | |
of India and the United States | 135 |
Illustrations xi
Figure 9.8. | Real and projected changes in global CO2 emissions in billion tons of carbon | 136 |
Figure 9.9. | Real and projected changes in global population | 137 |
Figure 9.10. | Real and projected changes in GDP per capita | 137 |
Figure 10.1. | Changes in the fraction of fossil fuels in the world’s energy consumption | 140 |
Figure 10.2. | Mix of consumed fossil fuels in 2002 for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the rest of the world | 141 |
Figure 10.3. | Schematic presentation of the Hubbert peak | 144 |
Figure 11.1. | The binding energy per nucleon as a function of the total number of nucleons (adjusted to the binding energy of deuterium) | 151 |
Figure 11.2. | Niagara Falls | 160 |
Figure 11.3. | Reconstructed windmills near Consuegra, Castilla-La Mancha, Spain | 162 |
Figure 11.4. | Wind-turbine farm near Zaragoza, Spain | 163 |
Figure 11.5. | Real and projected changes in global primary energy use per person (in units of billion joules per capita) | 173 |
Figure 11.6. | Real and projected changes in global use of nonfossil fuels | 173 |
Figure 11.7. | Changes in global use of nuclear and hydroelectric energies (expressed in exajoules) | 174 |
Figure 11.8. | Changes in global accumulated installed capacity of wind turbines | 175 |
Figure 14.1. | Examples of my monthly electric and gas bills | 209 |
Figure 14.2. | Electric and gas bills from England | 210 |
Figure 15.1. | The path to Exit Glacier in the Kenai Fjord National Park. The glacier is the overexposed, reflective part in the background. The marker is for the glacier’s location in 1951. | 224 |
Figure 15.2. | Larsen ice shelf breakup | 225 |
Figure 15.3. | Bleached coral on the Great Barrier Reef | 227 |
Table 2.1 | Simple example of GDP growth with an annual growth of 3% | 27 |
Table 2.2 | Variation of temperature with height in the troposphere | 34 |
Table 3.1. | The geological time scale | 38 |
Table 3.2. | Radioactive isotopes used to determine the age of rocks | 42 |
xii Illustrations
Table 3.3. | delC-13 for various carbon sources (per mil) | 44 |
Table 4.1. | Partial pressure differences in sea air (in units of microatmospheres) | 58 |
Table 5.1. | Energy forms | 68 |
Table 5.2. | Electromagnetic spectrum | 77 |
Table 6.1. | Approximate composition of the atmosphere | 87 |
Table 6.2. | Radiative forcing of some of the atmospheric components | 89 |
Table 6.3. | Some physical characteristics of Earth and Venus | 95 |
Table 7.1. | Global water distribution | 103 |
Table 8.1. | Estimated potential maximum sea-level rise from total melting of | |
present-day glaciers | 121 | |
Table 9.1. | Global income groups and average GDP per capita | 130 |
Table 10.1. | CO2 intensities, price, and use of fossil fuels in 2004 | 143 |
Table 10.2. | Global energy use and emission in 2005 | 145 |
Table 10.3. | Proven “conventional” world fossil fuel reserves in 2002 | 145 |
Table 10.4. | Proven oil reserves in billions of barrels | 146 |
Table 10.5. |